Monday, December 28, 2009

My Predictions for Major World Events in 2010

Just for fun, here are some speculative predictions, along with their probability ranges:

- Iran's government is overtaken by events, possibly including by air strikes made by Israel. 60-65%

- China openly breaks with North Korea. 50-70%

- N. Korea undergoes a leadership crisis due to Kim's medical incapacitation or death. 60-75%

- The PLA masses along the border with N. Korea, prepared to move in if complete collapse becomes imminent -- a strong possibility -- with international backing and blessings. 50-55%

- Mexico request American military intervention in its drug wars. 50-60%

_ America responds by heavily fortifying the border, ratcheting up material aid several orders of magnitude, and shares much more intelligence; lending covert units through the back door and stationing of attack and observation drons possible to likely. 50-60% (wider spread for some possibilities)

- Venezuela's Chavez makes a military move against at least one other country. 65-75%

- U.S. gives serious consideration to ending the Cuban embargo, but doesn't in 2010. 60-65%

- Pakistan gets far more hostile towards the U.S. than it already is. 70-80%

- China beefs up its South China Sea forces in direct response to Vietnam's just-announced purchase of primarily aircraft and naval equipment from Russia, including six submarines. 75-90%

- Cap-and-trade is defeated in U.S. Congress. 50-60%

Of course, in a year, I'll be reaching for a towel to wipe the egg off my face!!!

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